Weekly commentary

A view from Clough Brook Cottage

An weekly commentary on current affairs from an imaginary cottage in the Peak District.

The war in Ukraine rumbles on with continuing medieval bestiality from the Russians. If one has to take sides in this sad affair I am with Ukraine. Ukraine is an internationally recognised sovereign country invaded by Russia. The Russian regime is, by any reasonable analysis, a government of gangsters and kleptomaniacs. This is not to say that the present and previous Ukrainian regimes are/were “lily white”. However to take the Russian regime at its word – correctly interpreted as subjugation and permanent subordination of neighbours to ensure its security - is a reversion to great power politics which has served humanity so badly in the past 500 years. We must stand together to support a rules based system of international order and this includes the USA remembering Vietnam and Iraq for example.

The cost of living crisis is aptly described as distinct from much other of the ‘news hype’. Energy price increases may reach or even exceed 100% by autumn! I have to admit not being a supporter of energy privatisation (Gas and Electricity). A diffused and fragmented business was never going to be able to deal with such a crisis in cost increases. Rather than dance around the edges as the present government does with a small rebate and a loan. Nor the opposition’s proposal for a windfall tax which is only a very short term partial solution. Why not offer loans to suppliers – possibly paid back over up to 20 years – where energy costs are stabilised (controlled). Suppliers will, of course, scream that it is nationalisation by the back door and it may be. But it will provide stability while the transfer to renewables takes place. Just a thought!

Oh I suppose I shall have to comment on the Northern Ireland Protocol. A little analysis and removal of partiality would help! To do so requires acknowledgement of the facts not as some would wish them to be! The Good Friday Agreement and the Protocol are not synonymous. The GFA precedes the Protocol by 22 years. The GFA is about peace and stability in Northern Ireland. The Protocol is about trade. Of course there is an overlap and I would suggest that is one reason that the Protocol is written in the way that it is and for the provision of Article 16. Article 16 provides for “unilateral” action (see EU proposal surrounding Covid19 vaccines). Taking such “unilateral” action is not illegal as it is specifically provided for in the TCA (the Protocol is part of the TCA – UK-EU). “Unilateral” action is exactly as it says. It is not subject to agreement – maybe consultation but any party may institute it (see above about EU and Covid19 vaccines). The reasons for unilateral action are serious difficulties relating to societal, political and/or economic matters. (Words taken from the Protocol itself). The diversion of trade UK – NI and NI – Republic and the inability to form an Executive in the Province are strong indications that the test for unilateral action may have been met. If such action is taken it should not be confused with repudiation of whole or Part of the TCA which may well be illegal.