Brexit - The Media Nonsense Circus goes on!

The 29th March is a date in the calendar. It is not a date when the sky might fall in nor the end of the world! Ask yourself whether the EU and the UK would not negotiate if we just left on 29th. Of course we would. Scrub the hyperbole and next ask yourself why all of a sudden the EU is getting anxious about the UK leaving without a deal. Because if that happened the UK would be in a stronger negotiating position! Yes there might be disruption but it would then be seen as deliberate by either party. Think about it do we all really want that. Now those who seek to (as they put it) "take no deal off the table" are exposed as that proposal is part of a prospective narrative that goes like this:
a) take no deal off the table;
b) Parliament deadlocked over any prospective deal;
c) seek extension to Article 50;
d) propose "People's Vote/Final Say" which is really a proxy to seek to remain;
e) another referendum where Remain is on the ballot paper and split Leave vote with the deal or no deal also on the ballot paper.
Well I am not falling for it and the stronger negotiating position we have with a smug/arrogant EU the better!

BREXIT break the Impasse

I am a Remain voter and Labour Party member but also a proud to be British/English. History is likely to determine that these negotiations have not been handled well by either side. It is almost a truism in my experience that professional politicians are appalling negotiators confusing pragmatism with principle – but hey ho after 50 years of negotiating experience I would like to offer a suggestion as to how we may all get out of this prospective muddle. I say muddle as an objective assessment of so called “No deal” shows it is disruptive but by no means a catastrophe!

In any negotiation having control of the timetable and agenda conveys considerable advantage. We have been negotiating with the fag end of the present Commission and the European Parliament which will be new from July this year (new Commission also).

So the framework of an offer we could make is:

a) that in regard to matters agreed thus far in the Withdrawal Agreement with the exception of the Northern Ireland “backstop” they remain on the table as is up to 29^th March 2020. (It is a subtle difference but a backstop is not the same as a full stop – ergo it can be time limited!);

b) the UK position on the “backstop” is that it must be time limited (ending no later than 31^st December 2024) or that the UK has a unilateral right to exit the arrangement on the expiry of 6 months notice prior to 31^st December 2024.

c) the UK will not introduce any border controls in Northern Ireland other than those existing for the period up to 29^th March 2020;

d) the UK will voluntarily follow all reasonable EU regulations in the period up to 29^th March 2020.

Domestically I believe this approach would have considerable support. 
Update after Lunch:

I am a Remain voter and Labour Party member but also proud to be British/English. History is likely to determine that these negotiations have not been handled well by either side. It is almost a truism in my experience that professional politicians are appalling negotiators confusing pragmatism with principle – but hey ho after 50 years of negotiating experience I would like to offer a suggestion as to how we may all get out of this prospective muddle. I say muddle as an objective assessment of so called “No deal” shows it is disruptive but by no means a catastrophe!

At this time context is of critical importance. Both the UK and EU are running down the clock to 29^th March in the hope that one or the other will give in. Quite apart from the puerile nature of these posturings they rarely work even where the media and establishment as in this case continue with their unfounded suggestions of disaster. We have a situation where Parliament has overwhelmingly rejected the proposed Withdrawal Agreement. There is also a Parliamentary majority to seek alternative arrangements to the “backstop”. There appears to be growing support for leaving the EU on WTO terms (Poll Sunday 3^rd February greater than 40%). Both UK and EU law say BREXIT will happen at 2300 hrs. on 29^th March. There will be a new European Parliament and EU Commission in July 2019. A question arises as to whether those new bodies would take the same view. In addition would Barnier, Juncker et al want to go down in EU history as massive failures – which they would be by not being able to reach a deal with the UK. It needs to be remembered in the real (grown up) world both sides in negotiations are responsible for success or failure – apportioning amounts of blame does not get you anywhere! All of this leads me to the conclusion that the UK’s negotiating position is getting stronger not weaker (wait for screams, hysteria and hyperbole from Remainiacs).

In any negotiation having control of the timetable and agenda conveys considerable advantage. We have been negotiating with the fag end of the present Commission and European Parliament. There will be a new EU Commission and Parliament this July. This new Parliament is likely to have substantially increased representation of Eurosceptics.

So the framework of an offer we could make is:

a) that in regard to matters agreed thus far in the Withdrawal Agreement with the exception of the Northern Ireland “backstop” they remain on the table (but no payments to be made)(It is a subtle difference but a backstop is not the same as a full stop - ergo it can be time limited);

b) the UK position on the “backstop” is that it must be time limited (ending no later than 31^st December 2024) or that the UK has a unilateral right to exit the arrangement on the expiry of 6 months notice prior to 31^st December 2024;

c) the UK will not introduce any border controls in Northern Ireland other than those existing at this time for the period up to 29^th March 2020;

d) the UK will voluntarily follow all reasonable EU regulations in the period up to 29^th March 2020;

e) in respect of all other matters relating to the relationship between the UK and EU there shall complete reciprocity.

Domestically I believe this approach would have considerable support.