May’s Juvenile Tactics

It should come as no surprise that the PM is now saying that the deal she has negotiated is the only one available with the No Brexit as being the alternative if the House of Commons votes down the Withdrawal Agreement. She follows this up with the self serving “people want to get on with it” and “I can bring the country together”. This is complete nonsense and treats the electorate with contempt as it insults their intelligence!

The PM is trying to say that vote this through and Brexit will be done and dusted. Utter rubbish this is only the start of our continuing humiliation. Did it no take 7 years to negotiate a Canada - EU Free Trade Deal which at the last minute was nearly derailed by a Belgium Province. Think what negotiations would be like and how long it would take with France and its demands for fishing access, Spain seeking to control Gibralter and Ireland seeking to annex the North. So vote with the PM and all you get is more negotiating incompetence!

The Withdrawal Agreement must be voted down decisively as something which no self respecting independent sovereign country should stomach. If this means going to WTO terms then so be it. It will be painful but not as painful as decades of humiliation. The UK has the ability to adapt and adjust in business and we shall certainly be more nimble than sclerotic EU Bureaucracy.

We should try for a deal but one which respects our sovereignty. A couple of ideas which should be put to the EU (or at least made public); add to Withdrawal treaty:

1) The provisions of this Treaty shall cease to apply in every respect at the expiry of 12 months notice given, no earlier than 31^st December 2019, by either party (UK or EU) save in the case of specific exceptions, such exceptions being time limited to a maximum period of 12 months from the date on which cessation comes into force. Or

2) The provisions of this Treaty shall cease to have legal force on the payment of 50% of the amounts due and specified in the Withdrawal Agreement but in any event no earlier than 31^st December 2020.

The EU is unlikely to even wish to talk about this but I believe it sets the right tone for an independent Country. However to be straight with the people the PM should say (to use a Football analogy) we are not half way through the first half yet.

Prime Minister May – A Very Sad Case of Incompetence

Today the Prime Minister has been in Brussels to receive the approval of the EU 27 to the Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration in relation to BREXIT. To support her campaign to get the approval of the UK Parliament she has sent a letter to the people of the UK. She claims the Agreements will honour the result of the referendum and particularly return control of our borders, money and laws. None of that is true! With regard to borders there are especial long term arrangements for EU Citizens which will for years be determined by the ECJ. In relation to money the PM is seeking both a Free Trade Agreement and a Customs Arrangement – it is patent nonsense to think that the EU will not demand payment for access to it’s markets (else it undermines it’s protectionist Customs Union and Single Market) and freedom of movement for Citizens. Thirdly the agreements do not establish the Supremacy of UK law – see especially the so called Ireland “backstop” provision which could see external Judicial oversight in perpetuity. So when this is set against the Prime Minister’s negotiating competence, remember December 2017 – she gives in over the backstop, she offers a financial settlement before obtaining a Trade Deal. This Prime Minister is not capable of delivering any deal other than what the EU says she can have. The Country can and must do better! What ever happened to “No deal is better than a bad deal”? As a first step to getting support how about having an independent forensic audit of the £39bn to determine what it actually and reasonably should be. After all isn't transparency important in this exercise. The claim that the country requires a deal to be done does not mean at any price – she seems to have conveniently forgotten that!

Let us examine the EU and it’s constituent parts. If it was not already appreciated the EU as at presently run is a German economic hegemony (see it’s fiscal surplus and how it skews European economic development). How is it that the EU allows France to run a large deficit while Italy is not? How is it that Ireland, Portugal and Spain had severe austerity imposed while Germany and France escaped much more easily. It is clear that Germany’s economic hegemony is good for them at the expense of southern Europe (look what happened to Greece).

When it comes to international security there are a lot of “NINOs” (NATO in name only). Of the 28 current members of the EU only the UK, Poland, Estonia and Greece pay 2% or more of their GDP on NATO defence. Not all EU Members are NATO Members but there is a considerable overlap. Some spend less than 1% of GDP – notably Spain and Belgium (NATO Handbook 2017).

So far as the Good Friday Agreement is concerned the EU is not a party and it has been a blatant show of political opportunism by the current Republic Government to pursue it. If the UK is not going to put in a border and neither is the Republic what ever happened to trust. Is it so difficult for the Republic to say categorically that it rejects direct or indirect support for terrorism and that it will continue to honestly and genuinely maintain and enhance security co-operation on the issue of the border. Or is it that this is just another negotiating lever? Which brings me on to the refusal of the EU to allow participation of the UK in security databases – (see Withdrawal Agreement). I think we are now beginning to see what sort of people we are dealing with. In that introverted, self centred and self regarding world of the EU only someone as arrogant as Michel Barnier could say today that it is necessary to (re)build trust with the UK as the democratic exercise of the referendum meant it was no longer there! (interview SKY News 25^th November).

All of this leads me to the regrettable conclusion that the EU is institutionally incapable of negotiating in good faith! It’s actions thus far have shown malice and malign intent covered in a cloak meaningless soft words.

It is important to try for a deal but not this one. A deal has to be on the basis that for citizens there has to be legal and actual reciprocity. A complete end in March 2019 to the jurisdiction of the ECJ and the supremacy of UK Law, it’s Parliament and it’s Supreme Court. That is how mature countries behave. Else we should walk away.

BREXIT – Hypocrisy, Delusion and Misinformation

Another day in the life of a Brexit Observer

The Prime Minister goes to the CBI (19^th November). The CBI says it wants certainty for business (don't we all like a quiet life!). The Director General, one Carolyn Fairbairn, says that immigration restrictions would be bad for business. Now is it not the case that the members of this organisation have for years failed to invest in their workforce such that immigration of skilled artisans, professionals as well as unskilled and/or seasonal workers in the millions have come to the UK. They also complain at the lack of increased productivity also over many years. However this has not prevented stratospheric growth of CEO’s salaries, increased profits and depressed wages. The stench of stinking fish is overwhelming.

The Prime Minister says the UK can have a Customs Territory with the EU and the ability to have Free Trade Agreements around the world. The Withdrawal Agreement (14^th November) at page 302 and the Protocol on Northern Ireland say that this (a Customs Territory) would be a framework for the future. Moreover the document also states that such customs arrangements would be built upon for the future. This means the application of EU rules and payments to the EU budget. Yet the referendum result meant leaving the Single Market and the Customs Union (clearly stated innumerable times in the pre-vote debates). Clearly the Prime Minister is as deluded as many think.

Jacob Rees-Mogg says that it only takes 6 seconds for a Customs Transit of Containers exiting or entering the UK for non EU destinations. What he does not tell you is that clearance takes place off site with the use of Customs Brokers. So it only takes 6 seconds to drive through the Dock Gates but a small number of minutes off site for documentation and electronic registration. This, of course, does not help non containerised goods.

UK Treasury forecasts on Brexit do not disclose the assumptions on which they are based. As such (any statistician will tell) they are both meaningless and worthless. Moreover they cannot be facts as often quoted as they have not occurred!

It’s pretty obvious to me that that all these people are living in a post truth world. I do not wish to do so!

May has only herself to blame for this Brexit mess

I could go into detail about the deficiencies of the draft Withdrawal Agreement but before going there it is apt to think about the style of government and particularly the operation of the Cabinet system, and how, in my view, has been corrupted over the years by hubristic politicians and arrogant elitist and unaccountable Civil Servants.

There was time BT (before Thatcher) when Cabinet meant a collegiate approach to governing. A string of fairly strong PMs – Thatcher, Major (not as strong as he would have liked), Blair, possibly Brown and then Cameron who thought this was the way things should be but remains deluded about his premiership being successful.

A few examples of disasters brought about by this way of governing – Poll Tax, Maastricht, Iraq War, the bombing of Libya and Syria and the EU Referendum and now the Withdrawal Agreement.

They confuse power with real leadership. Real leadership is so much more than taking decisions in the national interest (a self serving definition if ever there was one!). Real leadership does of course involve having competence in the decisions you take but it is much more than that: How you reach decisions - are you inclusive?- do you inspire trust and confidence - do you enthuse people in your way of dealing with issues. Our present PM does not have any of those attributes.

It is said that you should not attack Civil Servants because they cannot respond. However this form of governing is much beloved of the Sir Humphreys in the British Civil Service. Shorter lines of communication – quicker decision making – less nuisance in having to consult others. They therefore are complicit in this debacle. It has been reported that Esther McVey was shouted down by the Cabinet Secretary when she asked for a show of hands at the end of the discussion on the proposed Withdrawal Agreement. No Civil Servant pip squeak would have done that to me! 

Time to get some backbone in Parliament and Cabinet because the compounding weaknesses of deluded Leaders and devious Civil Servants will otherwise take this country to another disaster.

The Withdrawal Agreement (draft) is an abysmal document but no more than one should expect from economy and trade protectionists. It does not genuinely and honestly address the referendum result as it traps the UK in a Customs Union and the Single Market both of which were identified in the referendum debate as the inevitable result of leaving the EU. In all truth the country faces a stark choice sovereignty or humiliation. Time to stand up for the UK!