Brexit We only have ourselves to blame

In February 2016 I attended meeting organised by the Fabian Society in Manchester to discuss the (then) forthcoming referendum on the EU. I asked why the ordinary working person should vote to Remain when they had faced years of stagnating wages and real loss of purchasing power. I remember clearly that the answers given were unsatisfactory – Andy Burnham said they should vote to Remain as the only beneficiary of a Leave vote would be Vladimir Putin?? Others pulled concerned looking faces. I said in aside that if we voted to Leave the rest of Europe would consider the UK a basket case. I voted Remain and happened to be in Oxford on 24th June. Going for a morning swim at the Holiday Inn that day one of the locals (who used the Leisure Club facilities) asked in a very friendly manner “How you doing – alright?” to which I replied “No I am not alright – the lunatics have taken over the asylum!” The friendly local smiled and let me get on with my swim. My analysis of the developing situation thus far is that the failure of Cameron’s reckless gamble to silence the Right Wing ideologues in the Conservative Party has plunged the Country into both a political and intellectual crisis. The politics are fairly straightforward – Brexiteers are overwhelmingly Free Market fanatics who would certainly be no friend or supporter of the ordinary working person no matter what they say before exiting the EU. Intellectually the debate has been appalling. It is not just that the same facts are wilfully mis-interpreted by Leavers and Remainers but that the former consider calling the national interest being a “Little Englander” and the latter believing the national interest to be their private property. Meanwhile the EU negotiators feel perplexity, glee at opportunities to get their own way and that the UK is engineering its own punishment without any help from Brussels all at the same time! On the Remain side the shallowness of the desire to reverse the decision can be seen from the Editorial in The Independent of 26th July. Here the argument is made that free movement of labour must be retained to preserve the NHS even to the extent of accepting a role for the ECJ. Facts do not seem to matter. If there is a need for Doctors and Nurses does anyone think the government is going to say you cannot enter UK because the quota (or whatever) has been reached and British citizens will have worse health provision. This is without indicating financial incentives to attract such staff. Moreover the British people are generous and welcoming – yes the number of EU nationals coming has dropped 25% but I do not believe that the vote has altered attitudes to the extent that EU nationals are no longer welcome. Far from it! In any event as the UK develops its policy on EU nationals I think they will find protection via Treaty and our Supreme Court is a better option than anything the ECJ can offer. The EU proposal to have continuing oversight by the ECJ is completely unacceptable to any sovereign nation and exists no where else despite the protestations of Guy Verhofstadt (aka in local hostelries as that Belgian windbag). I do not want to spend too much time on the bureaucrats view (this is very complicated and requires more of us to deal with it). Suffice to say in my varied experience (some £bn deals) if you pay too much attention to them (bureaucrats) you end up disappearing up your own rectum! On the Leave side the Free Trade fanatics seem to think it will just happen i.e. April 2019 in a couple of weeks all trade will be reorganised and there will just be this short blip. We all know this is nonsense and disruption of that magnitude must be avoided – but you would not think so if you read the Mail and Telegraph or followed the Adam Smith Institute on Twitter (a work of the Devil if ever there was one!) Business says it wants certainty and hopefully continuity and that is the voice of experience and should be given the required level of consideration. The UK is not without many strengths in these negotiations with the EU and we should be prepared to use them all. Just reflect on the Remainers concerns that people (EU Nationals in the UK) were being used as bargaining chips. What do you think now with the EU response to the UK offer. Does not the stench of hypocrisy disturb? Put yourself in the position of Russia. It is said with evidence that Reagan assured Gorbachev that NATO would not expand eastwards! Now see what has happened! So Germany now has a number of “buffer states” between it and Russia and without making the requisite contribution to defence. At the same time as engineering economic dominance of continental Europe. One last thought for this evening would all this have occurred if the UK had been more assertive in European Affairs – probably not – so in may respects much of this is our own fault – mainly sins of omission! Thank you Blair and Cameron.